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Market wraps 1st October 2025

Morning Bell - Grady Wulff

Wall St closed higher on Tuesday as investors overlooked government shutdown fears to post an unusually strong month of September. The Dow Jones rose 0.18% to close at a fresh record high while the Nasdaq added 0.31% and the S&P500 ended the day up 0.41%.

With a potential government shutdown looming, investors have been wary about a slowing labour market, the risk of stagflation and elevated stock valuation, so although government shutdowns aren’t usually market-moving events, this time we could see market movements as a result. In Europe overnight, markets closed higher led by Germany’s DAX rising 0.57%, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, the French CAC climbed 0.19% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.54%. 

Across the Asia markets on Tuesday, markets traded mixed as the latest data out of China showed manufacturing activity contracted for a 6th straight month, with the manufacturing PMI index coming in at 49.8 points. While still in contraction mode, the reading was better than economists were expecting and the strongest reading since March. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.25%, and South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.19%, while China’s CSI index gained 0.45%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.95%.

The local market closed 0.2% lower on Tuesday following a lacklustre session on Wall St on Monday and investors digested comments out of RBA Governor Michele Bullock after Australia’s central bank maintained the current cash rate at 3.6% for the next period. Materials and industrials stocks bucked the trend yesterday to close higher while energy stocks were the hardest hit amid declining oil prices.

Ms Bullock said market services inflation remains sticky and has been a key sticking point for the RBA’s rate journey over the last year adding to the difficult decisions made around Australia’s rate outlook pathway. For this reason, the RBA was content in holding the cash rate at the conclusion of yesterday’s meeting for the period ahead.

Seven West Media (ASX:SWM) and Southern Cross Media (ASX:SXL) shares rose over 7% and over 6% respectively yesterday on news of a proposed merger between the Australian media giants, while Restaurant Brands New Zealand soared almost 60% after receiving a takeover offer from its majority shareholder, Finaccess Restauracion, a Mexican company.

What to watch today:

  • On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.5% lower at US$62.51/barrel, gold is up 0.33% at yet another record US$3845.83/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.09% lower at US$105.35/tonne.
  • The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 66.16 US cents, 97.82 Japanese Yen, 49.17 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.
  • Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.12%.

Trading ideas:

  • Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Pantoro (ASX:PNR) from $2.15 to $2.80 and maintain a hold rating on the diversified mining services group as shares have climbed 130% in one year but some key catalysts and tailwinds including the gold price and new contract wins, are driving a strong growth outlook for the company which led the analyst to increase the 12-month PT and maintain a hold.
  • And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Infratil (ASX:IFT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 54-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $10.73 to the range of $9.40 to $9.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.